Groundhog Day 2020: Is groundhog prediction accurate? Does Phil predict the weather right?
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Groundhog Day happens every year on February 2 with the most famous ritual taking place in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. The custom was brought over to the US by German people that settled in the state.
Is the groundhog’s prediction accurate? Does Punxsutawney Phil predict the weather right?
Thousands of people descend on Punxsutawney to watch Phil the groundhog come out of his burrow.
If Phil sees his shadow in the sun and retreats into his den, the prediction is six more weeks of winter.
Should Phil not see his shadow, that means spring will arrive soon.
And if there are cloudy skies above when he emerges then spring will arrive even sooner.
READ MORE: Groundhog Day 2020: When is Groundhog Day in the US this year?
The National Centers for Environmental Information said Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy was 40 percent between 2008 and 2018.
David Unger from the US’s National Weather Service said: “It’s extremely difficult to give an estimate of how accurate climate predictions are.
“But compared to the terms with which Groundhog Day predictions are made, which are if the weather will be mild or not mild, then if our forecasts are about 60 percent accurate or higher, then we consider that to be a good estimate.”
The annual Groundhog Day tradition has its roots in Germany, where people believed animals, specifically badgers, could predict the arrival of spring.
The Pennsylvania Dutch were a group of German settlers who first migrated to the US in the 1680s.
They brought their customs and traditions with them, and the first reported Groundhog Day was mentioned in a February 2, 1840 diary entry made by James L Morris of Morgantown, Pennsylvania Dutch Country.
The first “official” Groundhog Day commemorated in Punxsutawney was in 1887.
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