Ireland faces worst-ever recession as Varadkar forced to shelve plans | World | News
[ad_1]
Experts have forecast a slump in Gross Domestic Product of between 12.4 percent and 17 percent as a fresh deficit and job losses crisis evolves out of the pandemic. The crisis has sparked a totemic political debate over new austerity measures after Dublin battled hard to bring its mountain of debt from the 2008 financial control back under control. Ireland was then handed an international bailout and told to implement a €29.8 billion austerity drive.
But the country managed to turnaround from the disaster to achieve full employment and a budget surplus before the coronavirus outbreak.
Conor O’Toole, a senior researcher at the Economic and Social Research Institute think-tank, said: “The scale of the shock that we have faced is completely unprecedented and without equivalent in modern economic times.”
Experts have said the economic downturn will make efforts to form a coalition government even more difficult.
At the heart of the negotiations, a deficit-reduction plan that will kick in from 2022 or 2023 after an initial stimulus packages attempts to reboot Ireland’s recovery.
Ireland faces its worst-ever recession because of impact of coronavirus lockdown
Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar
It is said to be a “key area of sensitivity” in the tails between the country’s political leaders.
Economists have said Dublin will be forced to cut spending or raise taxes in order to once again tackle the national debt.
Sebastian Barnes, acting chairman of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, said: “The next government will need to make some important and difficult decisions about its competition spending and tax objectives.”
This could cause political controversies further down the line after politicians at the last election in February promised to use budget surpluses to boost spending.
Ireland is now emerging from its coronavirus lockdown
Theresa Reidy, a political analysis at University College Cork, said the dominant political issue was no Ireland’s “fiscal black hole”.
She said: “The election campaign was built around a best-case scenario in terms of economic growth.
“In terms of what we’re seeing now, to call it a worst-case scenario doesn’t fully capture the extent of the economic damage.”
Premier Leo Varadkar’s Fine Gael finished in third place in the election behind Fianna Fail, which won the most seats in the Dail assembly.
MUST READ: Deflation fears haunt EU economy after global energy price collapse
International Monetary Fund predicts fast recovery from coronavirus
Irish nationalists Sinn Fein won the popular vote but have been shut out of negotiations to form a coalition government.
Mr Varadkar and Michael Martin, Fianna Fail’s leader, have been locked in talks with the Green Party.
But plans to build more social housing, boost healthcare and invest in environmental policies now look in danger.
Some in Dublin hope the European Union’s new €750 billion coronavirus recovery fund could offer some aid because of the country’s green credentials.
Last week Mr Varadkar welcomed the “broad thrust” of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s blueprint to borrow money in order to fund the bloc-wide rebuild.
DON’T MISS
BBC’s Katya Adler exposes growing panic in Brussels [VIDEO]
Eurozone crisis: EU economy set for worse recession than predicted [FORECAST]
‘Brussels IS the problem’ EU warned of ‘moral hazard’ [INSIGHT]
He said: “We need to kick-start economic and social recovery and get funds flowing to the sectors and regions that need them most.”
But the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and Economic and Social Research Institute’s calls for a big injection of cash from the next government has fallen on deaf ears.
Mr Varadkar has warned the next government’s first decision will be to cut coronavirus welfare payments that were introduced in March as almost 600,000 people lost work due the the lockdown.
Ms Reidy said: “We face a summer of discontent as the economic issues crystallise.
“Right now the nation is in a kind of crisis mode – and crisis mode is very different to normal politics. As the pandemic supports are unwound, the realities of the economic impact are going to become much more evident for individual voters.”
[ad_2]
Source link